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Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members -- Part 2: Generalization in time and space


Darwin Brochero, François Anctil and Christian Gagné

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Abstract - An uncertainty cascade model applied to stream flow forecasting seeks to evaluate the different sources of uncertainty of the complex rainfall-runoff process. The current trend focuses on the combination of Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems (MEPS) and hydrological model(s). However, the number of members of such a HEPS may rapidly increase to a level that may not be operationally sustainable. This paper evaluates the generalization ability of a simplification scheme of a 800-member HEPS formed by the combination of 16 lumped rainfall-runoff models with the 50 perturbed members from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS. Tests are made at two levels. At the local level, the transferability of the 9th day hydrological member selection for the other 8 forecast horizons exhibits an 82% success rate. The other evaluation is made at the regional or cluster level, the transferability from one catchment to another from within a cluster of watersheds also leads to a good performance (85% success rate), especially for forecast time horizons above 3 days and when the basins that formed the cluster presented themselves a good performance on an individual basis. Diversity, defined as hydrological model complementarity addressing different aspects of a forecast, was identified as the critical factor for proper selection applications.

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Bibtex:

@article{Brochero920,
    author    = { Darwin Brochero and François Anctil and Christian Gagné },
    title     = { Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members -- Part 2: Generalization in time and space },
    volume    = { 15 },
    number    = { 11 },
    pages     = { 3327--3341 },
    year      = { 2011 },
    journal   = { Hydrology and Earth System Sciences },
    web       = { http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/3327/2011/ }
}

Dernière modification: Nov 8 2011 2:49PM par cgagne

     
   
   

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